Predicting the Factors Influencing Inflation in Iraq from (2016 – 2026)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.62933/ges3fd06Keywords:
Training set , Validation set , Neural Network architecture , Hidden Layer, Relative WeightsAbstract
Inflation is one of the most significant contemporary economic issues, which has preoccupied economists for past decades. It is defined as a continuous increase in the general price level over more than a year due to economic reasons, which affects purchasing power—meaning that rising prices lead to a reduction in the purchasing power of goods and services. Tackling inflation and maintaining price stability are primary objectives that governments aim to achieve.In this study, a simple regression model and a neural network were applied to forecast the inflation rate. The findings indicate an increase in inflation rates as a result of money supply growth. Data was collected from the Central Bank of Iraq for the years 2004–2016 and analyzed using SPSS statistical software and MatlabR 2019b.
References
[1] Zeina Akram Abdul Latif Al-Nadawi, " The Impact of Key Economic Factors on Inflation Rates in Iraq for the Period (1980-2020): An Econometric Study ",2023. Statistical Sciences Journal, Issue 18 - March.
[2] Darwish,Marwan Juma .,(2018),”Effectiveness of Predicting Palestine Stock Exchange Project Using Artificial Neural Networks compared to the autoregressive model”,Al-Quds Open University Journal of Administrative and Economic Research, Volume (3), Issue (10) .
[3] Karlik,B.and Olgac,A.V.,2011.performance analysis of various activation functions in generalized MLP architectures of neural networks.International Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems,1(4),pp.111-122.
[4] Kapanova,k.G., Dimov, I. and Sellier, J.M., 2018. A genetic approach to automatic neural network architecture optimization. Neural Computing and Applications, 29(5), pp.1481-1492.
[5] Sharma,S.and Athaiya, A.,2017.Activation functions in neural networks.Towards Data Sci,6(12),pp.310-316.
[6]Al Shayea K Qeethara K.,(2017),” Neural Networks to Predict Stock Market Price “, Proceeding of the World congress on Engineering and Compaiter Science,Vol.(I),San Francisco,USA.
[7] Adnan Karim Najmuddin – Statistics for Economics and Management (202- Al Shayea K Qeethara K.,(2017),” Neural Networks to Predict Stock Market Price “, Proceeding of the World congress on Engineering and Compaiter Science,Vol.(I),San Francisco,USA. 02).
[8] Kazem ,Amouri Hadi and Muslim ,Bassem Shaliba.,(2002),”Advanced Economic Measurement (Theory and Application )’,National Library ,Baghdad .
[9] Peter J. Brockwell, Richard A. Davis, Introduction to time series and forecasting, second edition , springer-verlag,New York,USA,2002,p1.
[10] William W.Hsieh and Vancouver ,(2004),“Nonliner Multivariate and Time series Analysis By Neural Network methodsMarch.18, pp.1-25 .
www.ocgy.ubc.ca/~william/Pubs/Rev.Geop.pdf
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Fatimah Abdul – Hammeed jawad AL-Bermani (Author)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Licensed under a CC-BY license: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
